Dear All, due to the circumstances known for all of us I try to post a couple of analyses in my second language, the Low Medieval Hunglish. The main reason for this is that (except of course some classified reports at the US and UK embassies) there are very few reliable English sources about the situation in Hungary.
This beacon I am about to light of course emits stinky fumes and it is so faint that even Manowar could not find it from thousand miles away…but anyway, it’s a light and there are times when you find yourself stranded on a tiny island and that’s the time when you light torches.
Mr. Lázár attacks
Today Mr. Lázár the not-so-grey eminence of the Hungarian government blamed Germany for refugees, migrants and everything. In this post I try to find some unofficial explanations for that.
Before 2007 the Hungarian Border Guard was disbanded and all its duties were taken over by the police. The BÁH (the Immigration Authority) got weaker and weaker over the years. Before 2007 the border guard-BÁH system could handle the migrants driven to exile by the Iraqi and Kurdish wars.
The old staff started its career in the communist era when they were responsible for an airtight seal along the Hungarian borders. An experienced border guard officer had the knowledge to set posts, erect watchtowers, identify possible crossings and all those necessary steps to keep these guarded. Their equipment was among the finest across all armed forces in the country. The personnel was hand-picked.
The Balkan border that stretches for hundreds of kilometers is now practically unguarded. The Fence that catapulted our beautiful country to the world headlines is basically a confession that we are in trouble and we have to build some impromptu fence that only stops deer and rabbits and not desperate people with death and demolition behind them.
Same thing applies to all other refugee-related state agencies and organizations. This is way above our head and we can’t handle the situation.
It is of course the easiest way to blame someone else for this but the fact is that we were unprepared. Help was offered to us and we rejected almost everything.
Mr. Orbán tries the bluff again
Even Mr. Orbáns bitterest enemies has to admit that the man has an excellent ability to survive and to pose as a captain of a ship that sails all ahead full steam to some great and noble victory. Of course he is a skipper of a fishing trawler, all boilers cold, but he always has an ace in the pocket: right now he has no alternative in Hungary.
His opposition on the “left” is destroyed and the only other strong party is a nazi party on the payroll of the Russian FSB. Orbán knows that his western partners have to accept him and thinks that he can push the limits wherever he wants. From his selfish standpoint he is absolutely right.
This strategy is now encouraged by the fact that the Allmächtige Bundesmutti seems to be less firm than she usually is. The Germans have no final and constant standpoint on the refugee situation and the general turmoil in the EU might suggest that a clever Orbán can even win.
This is (sadly for Hungary) very far from the truth. The “weak” Bundesmutti lives in the imagination of an Eastern European politician who has successfully driven all women (with some genuinely stupid exceptions) out from his government, and does not realize that Angela Merkel will never act like Bismarck or De Gaulle.
She works in a very diverse and very democratic environment. She can’t take an anti-Islam stance because both Germany and France have millions of Muslim voters. (and England too) She can’t say that Germany will pull out from everything because the whole Europe knows that they have all the money. She can’t accept all migrants because all European countries have their own social problems, including an ever stronger neonazi movement in the former DDR.
Everyone (but Orbán) knows that she is now looking for an All-European compromise after which this bureaucratic sloth (the EU) will slowly but surely move and find some kind of solution. All leaders try to identify their part in the new picture. Big time bargaining and behind-the-scenes deals are going on. The Polish and the Portuguese join against the Czech and the Belgians but by teatime they all come to a satisfactory deal to leave out the Greeks and Irish who back the Italians against Luxembourg…and so on.
Of course Captain Orbán knows nothing of this. He has just yelled in the intercom: All ahead full to…well, somewhere.
Tomorrow? What tomorrow? He will still have the conn and no one wants to replace or remove him. The ship is stranded anyway. Mutiny? The crew is leaving with the rest of the fleet.